U.S. Escalates in Afghanistan One Month Before Withdrawal
The withdrawal from Afghanistan has been long overdue. But with rising Taliban violence, the U.S. will need to balance out their troop removal and future presence.
Between July 21st and July 22nd, 2021, the U.S. launched airstrikes against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Human Rights Watch (HRW) reports that the Taliban has taken more than 300 people into custody, killing some of them. The Taliban has been detaining residents in unidentified locations, accusing the detainees of being associated with the government.
Members of the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) have been targeted. The Taliban has told ANDSF members to register and report to them, promising them safety. Those who registered with the Taliban have been the victims of their recent violence.
The U.S. strikes were launched at the request of Afghan forces, continuing an escalation of U.S. strikes in places like Kunduz and Kandahar, the birthplace of the Taliban. The recent strikes are in response to an ongoing series of attacks on government-controlled districts in Afghanistan. Countries have been withdrawing from the region since May, and those that remain, like the U.S., face security concerns.
The Taliban denies any involvement in these detainments, even though evidence is not in their favor.
The U.S. can help Afghanistan by supporting the ANDSF and the Afghan Air Force (AAF), as they will be necessary stabilizing forces in Afghanistan. It is likely that ANDSF operations are devastated by the Taliban’s encroachment. Violence is likely to become worse once the Taliban enters more urban areas. The AAF does not have the best record of mitigating civilian casualties either.
Gen. McKenzie continues to say the “United States will not support Afghan forces with airstrikes after the complete withdrawal at the end of August.” This would mean Afghanistan has to rely on the limited U.S. military and diplomatic presence, strained by a frightening rise in Taliban occupation.
According to Gen. Mark A. Milley on July 21st, the Taliban militants have seized around half of the country’s 419 district centers – last month, they held only 81.
According to Politico, Milley and Biden seem to remain optimistic about Afghanistan’s future. Biden said that a Taliban takeover is “not inevitable,” citing the 300,000 Afghan troops, versus 75,000 Taliban. This perspective is not shared by the intelligence reports, revealing a takeover is possible in six to 18 months. “While the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan is on track to end by Aug. 31, the U.S. military will still support the Afghan security forces “when necessary,” Milley said.”
Biden and Milley deploy their poker faces when talking about Afghanistan. It is possible that the President and General are concealing their trepidations about Afghanistan’s stability. Though, it is also fair to consider the role apathy might play in their decision-making.
U.S. military involvement in the region will be a gray area for the foreseeable future.
No, the U.S. is probably not leaving Iraq
On July 26th, Biden announced a full withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, though this is unlikely to actually result in removing many of the 2,500 troops stationed there. Rather, many of them will just be getting “reclassified as serving in an advisory or training capacity.”
Washington Post Columnist, Max Boot, addresses why Biden’s strategy does not make sense. Boot contends that rebranding soldiers in Iraq is being done to appease “nationalist demands, fomented by Iran, for the departure of U.S. forces without actually pulling them out.” Boot then argues:
“The Taliban presents a much larger threat to the government in Kabul than the Islamic State does to the government in Baghdad — and the Islamic State is also present in Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghan forces are much more reliant on U.S. help than their Iraqi counterparts. The pullout from Afghanistan raises the risk of the kind of precipitous collapse that occurred in Iraq during the Islamic State onslaught in 2014.”
Boot raises many substantive points and I agree with most of their premises. Though, I was confused by the conclusion they arrived at, arguing to keep “2,500 troops in Afghanistan and 2,500 troops in Iraq.” Even if we were to keep troops in both countries, wouldn’t more troops be needed in Afghanistan than in Iraq? This seems like the natural conclusion given Boot’s previous points. In other words, if the Taliban does pose a larger threat than the Islamic State, wouldn’t there need to be more troops in Afghanistan than in Iraq? If I were for a military presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, I would argue yes.
However, I am very much not in favor of a military presence in either country. America’s presence should be stripped down to a minimal, diplomatic role. I understand Boot’s apprehension when it comes to removing troops, given the recent atrocities in the region. And let me be absolutely clear – there is no justification for abandoning Afghanistan, especially when consider the U.S. as a root cause for terrorism in the region. I also want to be clear that I do not disagree with Boot’s point about the Taliban posing a larger threat than the Islamic State currently.
The future does not look promising for Afghanistan
Gen. Milley does acknowledge the possibility of a Taliban takeover, but he is quick to move past this possibility. Milley’s posture appears deliberately evasive when it comes to discussing the potential for a Taliban takeover in the region.
Afghanistan needs help from the U.S., but overly-militaristic strategy has not proven beneficial in the past. It is hard to say if there are any immediate diplomatic options for the U.S. to take. For instance, the U.S. would need to use intelligence resources for locating victims/hostages in the unidentified locations of detainees. However, intelligence agencies like the CIA are going to be limited by the U.S. withdrawal, and intelligence capabilities have already been reduced.
Meanwhile, peace talks with the Taliban have not been fruitful. President Biden continues to reject criticisms of his decision to withdraw troops. Biden argues that Afghans must defend their nation. The clear issue here, is that Afghanistan is very reliant on U.S. resources. But a withdrawal will impact how well Afghanistan can protect itself. The withdrawal has already served as a catalyst for destabilization in Kabul. The U.S. embassy there is faced with logistical setbacks and security issues, due to their established reliance on American military forces.
When fending off criticisms against his withdrawal, Biden shifts the burden of defending Afghanistan to its people. His rebuttal seems dismissive and callous, especially given how the U.S. has made life worse in Afghanistan for decades.