Republicans Have an Anti-democracy Problem, They’re Embracing It
Republican officials across the country are prioritizing their partisan interests over democracy. Barton Gellman summarizes their electoral strategy for 2024 as follows:
Use gerrymandering to “tighten the GOPs grip on the legislatures in swing states.”
Next, the Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, might “be ready to give those legislatures near-absolute control over the choice of presidential electors.”
“If Republicans take back the House and Senate in 2022 the GOP will be firmly in charge of counting the electoral votes.”
Some may debate how feasible this plan is. After all, 2021 is just ending, and a lot can happen between now and 2024. But this strategy should not be downplayed in its intention to circumvent democracy for partisan purposes. And it would be naive to downplay Donald Trump’s control over the GOP that he maintains, as two-thirds of Republicans think the 2020 election was rigged against Trump. And Trump is still the party favorite for 2024.
A significant contingent of Trump’s base believes the previous election was rigged, despite it being the most secure one in America’s history. This was confirmed by Trump’s own officials, but that does not matter to most members of the GOP. Getting Trump back into the White House is all that matters to them right now, and the landscape has become increasingly hostile towards those who do not toe that line.
Anti-Trump Republican politicians are browbeaten into compliance by their base and party officials. Freshman congressman, Peter Meijer, voted for Trump’s impeachment following the events of January 6. He was one of the few Republican critics, resulting in threats against him, and votes for his censure by Republican parties in his own district. And so far, two out of the ten House Republicans who voted for Trump’s second impeachment have retired after receiving backlash.
GOP members have seen the writing on the wall: anti-Trump Republicans will be supplanted by Trump loyalists. This is necessary for the aforementioned electoral strategy to work, as demonstrated in 2020. That year, Trump was unable to overturn the decision of voters, since he did not have the state legislatures to help “find” votes for him. Meijer, once a vocal critic, has been worn down by internal party pressures. He and many others are now taking the “wait it out” approach, allowing authoritarianism to run rampant.
State legislatures are gaining more power over the executive branch. These legislatures govern the rules for choosing electors during Presidential elections, and “in at least 15 more states, Republicans have advanced new laws to shift authority over elections from governors and career officials in the executive branch to the legislature.” Around April 2021, more than 2,000 new state bills were identified as dealing “in one way or another with the way elections are administered.”
Republican-controlled states are making voting more difficult, and have planned to subvert democracy before. Yet, the response from Democrats has been lacking and obstructed. They have attempted to pass voting rights legislation, but it died in the Senate after a Republican filibuster. In July, Biden said that nothing would get done without the filibuster, but he has since changed his tune, and is more open to ending it now. However, Biden has been prioritizing bipartisanship for his spending bills. Biden says that ending the filibuster would lose votes for the bills.
At a time when democracy is being directly challenged, it is not being treated with the urgency that is needed. Though it is promising to see that Biden might push to eliminate the filibuster, the Democrats still have no brand for 2022, let alone for the Presidential election. Meanwhile, Republicans have consolidated behind the culture wars, which is already helping them win elections.
Changes in white identity have contributed to partisan polarization and the culture wars. One relevant example of this is critical race theory (CRT), which Glenn Youngkin ran on, flipping the Virginia governorship red. CRT has been weaponized as the new bogeyman for the right. Youngkin used CRT to evoke white racial grievances, which has been the GOP’s tactic for decades now, ever since the parties realigned in the mid-1960s.
Since appealing to white grievances is the bread and butter of the Republican party, it only makes sense that they would pledge allegiance to Trumpism. January 6th “insurgents were much more likely to come from a county where the white share of the population was in decline.” These racial fears were visible on Jan. 6, as white nationalists stormed the Capitol. And famous pundits have signaled their support for the dangerous theories that motivate Nazis like the one above.
Right-wing propagandist, Tucker Carlson, has pushed the white nationalist “Great Replacement Theory” on his show. The conspiracy theory lines up with the white genocide conspiracy, which asserts that there is a plot to replace white people with non-white people. This “plot” is often blamed on Jews, making the theory an effective anti-Semitic dogwhistle.
One might expect to find discussions about theories like this on 4Chan message boards, but Carlson averages millions of viewers on a mainstream network. The Overton window is clearly shifting further and further right, while these topics become normalized in the mainstream. Pundits like Carlson know that appealing to these grievances is good at instilling fear in their audience’s mind. That fear creates a sense of urgency that can translate into tangible results.
Whether it’s a “rigged” election, or white people being “replaced,” the unsubstantiated fears behind these perceived threats are very real. Many Republicans do believe the 2020 election was rigged, and some do believe they are being replaced. If someone truly believes these things, they believe their existence is being threatened. It only makes sense that they would be more inclined towards hostile and violent action. And so far, they are on that path with no end in sight. In June, 2021, a survey showed that 8 percent of respondents “agreed that Biden was illegitimate and that violence was justified to restore Trump to the White House.” For context, 8 percent translates to 21 million American adults.
Right now, the 2024 election looks like it will come down to Trump versus Biden. Hillary Clinton claimed that a Trump win “could be the end of our democracy,” but it should be noted that his loss also poses a threat. Only one of the potential candidates for 2024 would concede to the election results if they lose, and it’s not Trump. If he does win, there will be bigger problems, but if he loses, January 6th could easily repeat itself with greater intensity.